NOTES ON LATEST IRISH ELECTORAL POLLS #SinnFein #Pbp

The latest Irish political polls make interesting reading and appear in line with medium & long term trends.

Sinn Fein continue to surge and sweep up virtually all of the working class and broader left-wing vote. At 37% they are within 5% of being more popular than FF & FG put together. It is hard to see this trend reversing and we must now begin to seriously contemplate an overall majority for Sinn Fein. In any case they will have their choice of coalition partners to make up small numbers and are likely to choose the ones that will give the least lip – Labour or SDs or a cuppla Mcgraths & Healy-Raes.

Although they will be the last to publically admit it, these polling figures, in line with long-established trends & confirmed repeatedly by multiple polling sources, are a disaster for PBP.

20 years into an electoral adventure, PBP are in danger of losing all their seats on these figures. Even if they didn’t, however, it seems highly unlikely that PBP will have any influence over the program of a future Sinn Fein government.

PBP’s current masterplan is to bring socialism in by way of a Sinn Féin minority govt that will yield to socialist demands under numerical pressure applied by PBP TD’s.

PBP having no seats alongside Sinn Fein having more than enough seats to do as they please without PBP is potentially a bit of a problem then, no?

The breakdown figures for PBP are even more impressively shite – 0% in Munster & Connaught for example. Half of Ireland – the fighting half I might add – has never even heard of them.

But worst of all is the dreadful & indeed fragile 3% among 18-34 year olds – again in line with long-term trends and multiple sources. Everyone knows about the multiple, cascading crises young people face and a lot more than 3% know it’s got something to do with capitalism. A socialist organization that carries so little support among those young people worst affected by capitalism is in very serious, emergency trouble whether they want to talk about it or not.

If you ask me – and speaking as a former member with an abiding respect for some still involved – PBP might well be on their way out altogether. Intellectually & organizationally moribund, Ego & faction-ridden, and with all remaining political chips on what looks now very like not only the wrong horse, but altogether a non-starter of a horse who ain’t even in the race, I wonder how long more it can go on without collapsing in on itself?

We’ll see. But in any case I would say that the Sinn Féin surge is the main electoral political fact of left-wing life, in the south of Ireland at least, for maybe the next decade.

Will SF fulfil their promises to Irish Workers when in power? For a number of reasons, I highly doubt it.

Will their best left-wing opposition come from an electoral organisation with 14 factions & 0 Dáil seats?

I highly doubt that too. Interesting times!