The image above shows a map of Ireland in 2100 under a highly optimistic 2C rise scenario. 3-5C is much more likely, but heh let’s be hopeful.

I look at the map & it reminds me of my favourite joke –

Q: How do you make God laugh?

A: Tell her your plans.

At present Sinn Fein, PBP, republicans & socialists in general & a few liberals too are full of plans for a United Ireland. We will be sick of looking at blueprints for a 32 county nation before long, they will soon be so prevalent in our political discourse.

God is in stitches.

Our Coastal plains, central great plain, all our river valleys will be flooded, wiping out all large cities & towns and drowning all the best, & most of the viable, agricultural land.

Newgrange drownded. The Bogside drownded. The GPO drownded.

Not Ireland anymore, far from it, but a myriad archipelago, & highly unlikely to be all one polity, instead perhaps simply numerous independent island territories & communities eking out a bare living in extremely hostile conditions on the sides of mountains. Each with their own post-english dialect. Maybe some will be communes. Some will likely be petty tyrannies. There won’t be political uniformity across the new islands is my guess. The forces, technologies, & institutions that can form larger polities like nation-states simply no longer exist. And it will even be quite something if there are humans left atall, which will depend on there being food for us to eat, which the science doubts.

But let’s be absurdly, blindly hopeful, & say we’ll have food to eat. Whatever food we can raise or graze half way up Carrantouhil and like places. Enough food for a few hundred or a thousand on the bigger new islands, maybe.

What kind of human communities will these be? Without petrol, an energy grid, computers, mod cons of any sort…

I’d say they’ll be happy enough if the day ends with a half-full belly & a dry bed to lie down in. And it will likely take them all day every day to do the work that half fills that belly. They’ll have no TVs or Spotify but they will have their own music, songs, stories, maybe even some told by old people who have somehow survived & can recount the tales of Gerry Adams & Ian Paisley, of Bloody Sunday & the H-Block, of Mad Dog & McGlinchey. These names from a vanished land will have the same reality, & the same relevance, to the young listeners as the Firbolg & Deirdre of The Sorrows have to us.

And if anyone mentions a United Ireland, the whole tribe will roll about in the howls of laughter, tho in the one or two old survivors this laughter might eventually turn to tears.